SPY Weekly Analysis: Range Floor Breaks and a Fourth Red Week Put $727 and $715 in Focus
By Tech & Money Press · SPY weekly outlook for the week of November 9, 2026
Last week we said a daily close below $747.74 would confirm SPY’s range break. It took one session. On Thursday, SPY fell 4.4% to $733.00 on the heaviest volume in three months, and Friday’s blowout jobs report only bought a small bounce. SPY closed the week at $735.29, down 2.7%, its fourth straight red week and its lowest weekly close since late June. With Nvidia’s board opening an investigation into its CEO over the weekend and October inflation data due this week, here is what the charts show.
Four Red Weeks and a Wide Reversal Candle
The weekly candle tells the story. SPY opened the week at $759.45, rallied to $775.64 on Wednesday after the election results, then reversed hard and closed near the bottom of a $43 range at $735.29. Weekly volume was about 331 million shares, the most of the last 20 weeks.
It is also the fourth lower close in a row: $763.25, $759.97, $755.72 and now $735.29. From the Oct. 6 all-time high of $781.62, SPY is down about 5.9%, and the weekly close is the lowest since the week of June 26 ($727.18).
Thursday Broke the Range
On the daily chart, Wednesday still looked fine: SPY closed at $766.81, back inside its range. Thursday erased that and more. SPY opened at $765.47, fell all day to $732.71 and closed at $733.00, down 4.4%, on about 126 million shares, roughly double Wednesday’s volume and the most in three months. That was a clean close below $747.74, the Sept. 16 low that had held as the floor of the range since mid-September.
Friday gave buyers a reason to step in. The U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the 65,000 expected, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. SPY bounced to $742.21 but faded into the close at $735.29, up just 0.3% and only 71 cents above the low of the day. Buyers showed up, but sellers used the bounce.
The Old Floor Is Now the Ceiling
When support breaks, it often becomes resistance. The $747.74–$750.36 zone (the Sept. 16 and Oct. 30 lows) held SPY for almost two months. Now it is the area bulls need to win back to argue that Thursday was a shakeout and not a breakdown.
Below the market, the first support is Thursday’s low at $732.71, the low of the week. Under that, the July 31 weekly low at $727.29 is the next real level, and below that the June 26 weekly low at $714.81.
Key Levels for the Week
- Resistance 2: $747.74–$750.36 – the old range floor (Sept. 16 and Oct. 30 lows)
- Resistance 1: $742.21 – Friday’s high
- Support 1: $732.71 – Thursday’s low, the low of the week
- Support 2: $727.29 – the July 31 weekly low
- Below: $714.81 – the June 26 weekly low
A Busy Week of Catalysts
Nvidia comes first. On Sunday, its board said it is opening an independent investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. Nvidia is one of the biggest weights in the S&P 500 and the face of the AI trade that drove last week’s sell-off, so how NVDA trades in Monday’s premarket matters for SPY.
Palantir reports earnings on Monday. October inflation data is due later in the week, with producer prices (PPI) on Friday, where the calendar shows headline PPI expected at 6.6% year over year versus 6.3% last month. Wednesday is Veterans Day: the stock market is open, but the bond market is closed. Several Fed speakers, including New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, are on the schedule Thursday and Friday.
Two Scenarios
Bullish: SPY holds $732.71 and takes out Friday’s high at $742.21. A daily close back above $747.74 would put SPY back inside its range and turn Thursday into a failed breakdown, with room back toward $755–$766.
Bearish: A daily close below $732.71 opens the way to $727.29, then $714.81. A hot inflation print or more pressure on Nvidia and the chip stocks could get SPY there quickly.
Our Take
The structure is bearish. Last week’s breakdown scenario played out in a single day: four lower weekly closes, a range break on the heaviest volume in three months, and a weak bounce on a strong jobs number. That is what distribution looks like.
We are not trying to call a bottom. The first sign that buyers are back would be a daily close above $742.21, and the real test is $747.74. Until then, rallies into the $742–$750 zone are more likely to be sold than bought. With Nvidia headlines and inflation data in the same week, expect big swings, keep size small, and wait for confirmed closes rather than guessing.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Tech & Money Press is not a registered investment advisor. Trading stocks involves risk, including the loss of your investment. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
Sources: Price data from Webull (weekly and daily bars as of the Nov. 6, 2026 close; after-hours as of 8:00 p.m. ET). Economic calendar via Webull. Jobs data via Benzinga. Nvidia board statement via NVIDIA Newsroom (nvidianews.nvidia.com).